AFC East
I think the division should play out similar to last year: Bills a nod ahead of the Patriots, Dolphins are feisty, Jets are the last. But I do think the teams may be a little closer together this time around. I think the numbers in this division are pretty dang sharp, so wouldn't be shocked if it goes the other way.
Buffalo Bills UNDER 11.5 (+120)
The Bills are in the mix for the best AFC team without a doubt. I like what they did roster wise on the defensive end of the ball especially. They're clearly the best team in the AFC East, and I would be somewhat surprised if they don't win the division. That said, I think we need pump the brakes on them a little bit offensively. Allen is a great QB, but I don't think he deserves the MVP frontrunner label. He should put up big numbers, but I think the offense relies too much on him having to make plays with his feet. It is also worth nothing that while his accuracy has undoubtedly improved over his career, he is still pretty inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. His numbers, while improving, are still not that eye-popping. Throwing for under 7 yards per attempt is not MVP material, and so I think he still needs to prove something before I invest much in them. Combine that with plenty of tough competition this year (visiting both Baltimore and Cincinnati, KC, Green Bay, Tennessee) and I think 11-6 seems about right. It'll be close to the number but I like the under, especially at plus money
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (-125)
I like what this team brings to the table defensively. They have one of the best CB sets in the NFL without a doubt, and I think they're gonna be at worst a plucky team that will be able to hang in games because of a nice defense. Tyreek Hill is a nice pickup as well with his playmaking -- something they've really lacked -- and I think he pairs nicely with Waddle.
But there are a couple concerns. First and foremost is Tua. I feel like he is a very limited quarterback that can only really produce on plays designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly/short-to-intermediate passes. There's a lot of similarities to Jimmy G in this sense, except it's TBD on if Tua has Jimmy's intangibles, etc. I think being a contender in this division and conference as a whole is going to require more than that, and I don't see him with the ability to become more of a downfield threat. I also hate their schedule in the back end. They have a 5-game stretch towards the end of the season of Niners, Chargers, Bills, Packers, and Patriots -- three of which on the road. It seems plausible they could go 0-5 in those games. This might be the reverse of last year where they go on a run in the early to mid portion of the season, but then really fade down the stretch. Miami will win around 7 or 8 games -- so not shocking if they do push or even cover, but under feels like the play.
New England Patriots OVER 8.5 (-125)
There is a sour taste from the ending of last season, when they got absolutely decimated against Buffalo in the Wild Card round. I also think there is a pretty negative perception of how they drafted this year. I mean, Bill has not been exactly great at drafting skill position players over the last decade or so. But it seems like this year all the talking heads and draft experts have been extra harsh on them. Then there's the whole Matt Patricia thing. So I feel a sense of pessimism for this team, with a lot thinking they're possibly the third best team in the division.
I don't think the Patriots jump out in terms of firepower offensively, but I do think the number here is a little low given how they faired last year and their defensive prowess. People don't seem to want to admit that Mac Jones is a pretty damn solid QB, albeit with a lower ceiling than a lot of his counterparts. We shouldn't underestimate the leap he could make this year though after having a solid rookie season under his belt. I do think he will be measurably better than he was last season, even if he doesn't have the best suite of weapons to work with. I also think they have the potential to have a pretty effective running game (which will help Mac out a lot), and we know defensively they're gonna be good. The Patriots seem like they're going against the grain in terms of how the league is generally moving, but I always have confidence betting on a team that is well-coached, plays great defense, and can run. They'll be in the mix, and their schedule isn't that bad. I think they go about 10-7
New York Jets OVER 5.5 (-175)
This might be the type of number you look for an alt line at 6 and give yourself a nice push opportunity. I think 6-11 is pretty much exactly what this team is. They have quite a bit more talent than the Atlanta's and Houston's of the world, and so I do think they will be measurably better. Zach Wilson's health is a little bit concerning, but I'm not very sure that the Jets are going to fair better with him in there any way.
I really liked the Garrett Wilson draft pick, even without my Ohio State bias. He gives them someone who could put up some big numbers and have a positive impact right away. I think they are gonna be able to get in a few shootouts against weaker defensive teams, and probably pick up a few wins that way. Unfortunately I don't have much faith in their defense (gave up 504 points last year -- yikes). I figure they will at least be a little better than that with Saleh picking up a year of experience and getting more acclimated the role.
If they go like 3-14 then it won't be shocking, it's the Jets. But I think they have enough talent this year to avoid the complete trash status like the team they share a stadium with.
I think the division should play out similar to last year: Bills a nod ahead of the Patriots, Dolphins are feisty, Jets are the last. But I do think the teams may be a little closer together this time around. I think the numbers in this division are pretty dang sharp, so wouldn't be shocked if it goes the other way.
Buffalo Bills UNDER 11.5 (+120)
The Bills are in the mix for the best AFC team without a doubt. I like what they did roster wise on the defensive end of the ball especially. They're clearly the best team in the AFC East, and I would be somewhat surprised if they don't win the division. That said, I think we need pump the brakes on them a little bit offensively. Allen is a great QB, but I don't think he deserves the MVP frontrunner label. He should put up big numbers, but I think the offense relies too much on him having to make plays with his feet. It is also worth nothing that while his accuracy has undoubtedly improved over his career, he is still pretty inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. His numbers, while improving, are still not that eye-popping. Throwing for under 7 yards per attempt is not MVP material, and so I think he still needs to prove something before I invest much in them. Combine that with plenty of tough competition this year (visiting both Baltimore and Cincinnati, KC, Green Bay, Tennessee) and I think 11-6 seems about right. It'll be close to the number but I like the under, especially at plus money
Miami Dolphins UNDER 9 (-125)
I like what this team brings to the table defensively. They have one of the best CB sets in the NFL without a doubt, and I think they're gonna be at worst a plucky team that will be able to hang in games because of a nice defense. Tyreek Hill is a nice pickup as well with his playmaking -- something they've really lacked -- and I think he pairs nicely with Waddle.
But there are a couple concerns. First and foremost is Tua. I feel like he is a very limited quarterback that can only really produce on plays designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly/short-to-intermediate passes. There's a lot of similarities to Jimmy G in this sense, except it's TBD on if Tua has Jimmy's intangibles, etc. I think being a contender in this division and conference as a whole is going to require more than that, and I don't see him with the ability to become more of a downfield threat. I also hate their schedule in the back end. They have a 5-game stretch towards the end of the season of Niners, Chargers, Bills, Packers, and Patriots -- three of which on the road. It seems plausible they could go 0-5 in those games. This might be the reverse of last year where they go on a run in the early to mid portion of the season, but then really fade down the stretch. Miami will win around 7 or 8 games -- so not shocking if they do push or even cover, but under feels like the play.
New England Patriots OVER 8.5 (-125)
There is a sour taste from the ending of last season, when they got absolutely decimated against Buffalo in the Wild Card round. I also think there is a pretty negative perception of how they drafted this year. I mean, Bill has not been exactly great at drafting skill position players over the last decade or so. But it seems like this year all the talking heads and draft experts have been extra harsh on them. Then there's the whole Matt Patricia thing. So I feel a sense of pessimism for this team, with a lot thinking they're possibly the third best team in the division.
I don't think the Patriots jump out in terms of firepower offensively, but I do think the number here is a little low given how they faired last year and their defensive prowess. People don't seem to want to admit that Mac Jones is a pretty damn solid QB, albeit with a lower ceiling than a lot of his counterparts. We shouldn't underestimate the leap he could make this year though after having a solid rookie season under his belt. I do think he will be measurably better than he was last season, even if he doesn't have the best suite of weapons to work with. I also think they have the potential to have a pretty effective running game (which will help Mac out a lot), and we know defensively they're gonna be good. The Patriots seem like they're going against the grain in terms of how the league is generally moving, but I always have confidence betting on a team that is well-coached, plays great defense, and can run. They'll be in the mix, and their schedule isn't that bad. I think they go about 10-7
New York Jets OVER 5.5 (-175)
This might be the type of number you look for an alt line at 6 and give yourself a nice push opportunity. I think 6-11 is pretty much exactly what this team is. They have quite a bit more talent than the Atlanta's and Houston's of the world, and so I do think they will be measurably better. Zach Wilson's health is a little bit concerning, but I'm not very sure that the Jets are going to fair better with him in there any way.
I really liked the Garrett Wilson draft pick, even without my Ohio State bias. He gives them someone who could put up some big numbers and have a positive impact right away. I think they are gonna be able to get in a few shootouts against weaker defensive teams, and probably pick up a few wins that way. Unfortunately I don't have much faith in their defense (gave up 504 points last year -- yikes). I figure they will at least be a little better than that with Saleh picking up a year of experience and getting more acclimated the role.
If they go like 3-14 then it won't be shocking, it's the Jets. But I think they have enough talent this year to avoid the complete trash status like the team they share a stadium with.
AFC North
I think Cincy remains the cream of the crop; they have a better roster than Baltimore top to bottom. Pittsburgh could be feisty albeit very challenged offensively; the Browns....lol
Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (-160)
This team has a pretty good amount of talent both sides of the ball. They were incredibly unfortunate on the injury end last year; their defense was absolutely decimated. They will be a lot stronger this year on that end, assuming they don't run into misfortune again. Their running game should also be a lot better with the return of RBs, plus Lamar.And if Lamar is dinged up, there are worse insurance policies in the world than Hunter. The concerns for me are if they have enough of a downfield threat to really be able to stretch defenses and create more opportunities to run. They're really solid at tight end, but I don't think they have much on the perimeter or in the wide receiving corp in general. That could be trouble for them, and make it easier for defenses to game plan. If someone can break out in the receiving group though, that could propel them to a true contender in the conference.
I think this number is pretty close, but I lean the over. Feels like a 10-7 type year and second in the division.
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10 (+100)
I really loved when the number was at 9.5, but getting even money at 10 is pretty nice too with an opportunity to bail out with a push if things don't go that well. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offense. They have the best receiving group in the NFL, and frankly it's not very close. Mixon is a beat out of the backfield and a threat in the passing game as well, and their offensive line is revamped and should be much better this year. The center of it all is Burrow, who should be right in the thick of the MVP race. This team could be the best offense in the NFL, especially if they can find someone to fill the void at tight end. Whoever plays that role should get some opportunities. Their defense is solid too. They should be pretty strong up front again, and they have a nice group of veteran, reliable players in the secondary highlighted by Bates. The concern on this end is their linebacking core, easily their biggest weakness. But they may be able to hide that OK if the line and secondary play well. The experience of this team should help a bit; they have a winning culture now, thanks to Burrow and the results from last year.
I don't buy the hangover angle here. They should be able to cover the number. They have some tough opponents, but they'll have KC and Buffalo both at home. 12-5 seems like a middle of the road expectation for them.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 8.5 (-140)
This was definitely the wager to grab a few weeks ago when it was inexplicably at 9.5 wins. But even at 8.5, this still should go under. The effect that this whole DeShaun Watson situation has had may negatively affect the team more than people realize. The fact that there is a decision and suspension would in theory help, but the fact that this team even traded for the guy has put a cloud over them. Their fan base is not going to be as supportive as past years -- not that it'll make THAT much of a difference, but I do think it's an illustration of an icky team culture and a situation that may linger more than people realize.
On a more simple note, Jacoby Brissett is not a good QB. And they're in a tough division. They have good pieces on defense, and the best running back duo in the league, but they are very limited at WR and now at QB. The extension of the suspension from 6 to 11 is even more significant given who they play for games 7-11: Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, Bucs -- with 3 of those 5 on the road. Not looking good, they could be out of it by the time Watson returns. Feels like 7-10 kind of year
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7.5 (+100)
This one is really close, but I lean over. I have them pegged at 8-9. They are going to be competitive because of a stout defense, one of the best in the league. The problem for them is on the other side of the ball. They have a lot of uncertainty at QB. Mitch Trubisky might be OK, but he's obviously pretty limited and I don't see him being able to do much with their WR group. Pickett, if he were to start, has reportedly been pretty average and may run into similar problems.
I do think the Steelers are a team that historically has been able to draft/develop skill guys well, so maybe someone breaks out and helps them expand their offense a bit. We'll see. I give the over the nudge because they are well coached and have a defense/running game that can keep them competitive, but they are really limited in the passing game.
I think Cincy remains the cream of the crop; they have a better roster than Baltimore top to bottom. Pittsburgh could be feisty albeit very challenged offensively; the Browns....lol
Baltimore Ravens OVER 9.5 (-160)
This team has a pretty good amount of talent both sides of the ball. They were incredibly unfortunate on the injury end last year; their defense was absolutely decimated. They will be a lot stronger this year on that end, assuming they don't run into misfortune again. Their running game should also be a lot better with the return of RBs, plus Lamar.And if Lamar is dinged up, there are worse insurance policies in the world than Hunter. The concerns for me are if they have enough of a downfield threat to really be able to stretch defenses and create more opportunities to run. They're really solid at tight end, but I don't think they have much on the perimeter or in the wide receiving corp in general. That could be trouble for them, and make it easier for defenses to game plan. If someone can break out in the receiving group though, that could propel them to a true contender in the conference.
I think this number is pretty close, but I lean the over. Feels like a 10-7 type year and second in the division.
Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10 (+100)
I really loved when the number was at 9.5, but getting even money at 10 is pretty nice too with an opportunity to bail out with a push if things don't go that well. The Bengals are absolutely loaded on offense. They have the best receiving group in the NFL, and frankly it's not very close. Mixon is a beat out of the backfield and a threat in the passing game as well, and their offensive line is revamped and should be much better this year. The center of it all is Burrow, who should be right in the thick of the MVP race. This team could be the best offense in the NFL, especially if they can find someone to fill the void at tight end. Whoever plays that role should get some opportunities. Their defense is solid too. They should be pretty strong up front again, and they have a nice group of veteran, reliable players in the secondary highlighted by Bates. The concern on this end is their linebacking core, easily their biggest weakness. But they may be able to hide that OK if the line and secondary play well. The experience of this team should help a bit; they have a winning culture now, thanks to Burrow and the results from last year.
I don't buy the hangover angle here. They should be able to cover the number. They have some tough opponents, but they'll have KC and Buffalo both at home. 12-5 seems like a middle of the road expectation for them.
Cleveland Browns UNDER 8.5 (-140)
This was definitely the wager to grab a few weeks ago when it was inexplicably at 9.5 wins. But even at 8.5, this still should go under. The effect that this whole DeShaun Watson situation has had may negatively affect the team more than people realize. The fact that there is a decision and suspension would in theory help, but the fact that this team even traded for the guy has put a cloud over them. Their fan base is not going to be as supportive as past years -- not that it'll make THAT much of a difference, but I do think it's an illustration of an icky team culture and a situation that may linger more than people realize.
On a more simple note, Jacoby Brissett is not a good QB. And they're in a tough division. They have good pieces on defense, and the best running back duo in the league, but they are very limited at WR and now at QB. The extension of the suspension from 6 to 11 is even more significant given who they play for games 7-11: Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, Bucs -- with 3 of those 5 on the road. Not looking good, they could be out of it by the time Watson returns. Feels like 7-10 kind of year
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 7.5 (+100)
This one is really close, but I lean over. I have them pegged at 8-9. They are going to be competitive because of a stout defense, one of the best in the league. The problem for them is on the other side of the ball. They have a lot of uncertainty at QB. Mitch Trubisky might be OK, but he's obviously pretty limited and I don't see him being able to do much with their WR group. Pickett, if he were to start, has reportedly been pretty average and may run into similar problems.
I do think the Steelers are a team that historically has been able to draft/develop skill guys well, so maybe someone breaks out and helps them expand their offense a bit. We'll see. I give the over the nudge because they are well coached and have a defense/running game that can keep them competitive, but they are really limited in the passing game.
I think NE could open 0-4 (MI, Pitt, Balt and GB) and potentially lose five of their last six starting with an away game at MN.
I always bet the SB loser under the following season..I have seen some 9.5's out there if you like Cinn over.
Looking forward to the rest of your insights. FYI, GB can be found at un11.5 -140 and ov10.5 -150 so you could hope for 11 and only risk the juice.
I always bet the SB loser under the following season..I have seen some 9.5's out there if you like Cinn over.
Looking forward to the rest of your insights. FYI, GB can be found at un11.5 -140 and ov10.5 -150 so you could hope for 11 and only risk the juice.
That's an intriguing game. Really going to depend on how Week 1 goes in my view.
I could see Cincinnati slaughtering them Pittsburgh in Week 1, and New England winning in Miami. Then you have a nice bounce back spot for the Steelers at home
Of course in that case you may get an even nicer number
